South African Skeptics

Recently featured on 3rd Degree, it seems that the old adage about one man telling a lie and a hundred repeating it as truth receives another supporting instance here (http://www.news24.com/Die_Volksblad/Nuus/0,,5-83_1986418,00.html):



An earlier article can be found here (http://www.sabcnews.com/south_africa/general/0,2172,93664,00.html).

'Luthon64

Danie Krugel and friends with their magnificent person-finding machine made M-Net's Carte Blanche programme on 03 December this year.  Unfortunately, I was unable to view the broadcast but a transcript/outline can be read here (http://www.carteblanche.co.za/Display/Display.asp?Id=3233), and the "IMPORTANT DISCLAIMER" at the bottom is especially revealing.  By all accounts, it sounds much like a carbon copy of the 3rd Degree programme aired late in August this year.  Uncharacteristically, Derek Watts and Ruda Landman were, it seems, each tripping over their own lower lip for fawning instead of doing any actual research or investigation, e.g. a simple Google search for starters.  Suspiciously, no mention was made that Krugel has been peddling his "services" for more than two years, and that such miraculous technology has failed to raise the eyebrows of the FBI or Interpol.

Again, no detailed descriptions and explicit account of the test protocol(s) were given.  Such questions as whether the target had a cell 'phone or not, or whether Krugel and/or his associates had any direct contact at any time with him/her remain unanswered.  However, unlike the 3rd Degree programme, it seems that DNA wasn't mentioned at all this time, only hair cuttings.  The difficulties of extracting DNA from hair are described here (http://basepair.library.umc.edu/FBLM/BASE PAIR LABS/DNA From Hair.doc) (requires M$ Word) and here (http://www.bio.net/hypermail/methods/1992-April/000809.html).  Suddenly dropping "DNA" from their vocabulary - when it was previously used with great frequency and much gay abandon - is itself suspicious.

At the time of the 3rd Degree programme about Krugel, I wrote the producers thus (dated 23 August 2006):


A delightful measure of sanity on this issue can be found here (http://moonflake.wordpress.com/2006/12/06/midweek-cuckoo-danie-krugel/) and here (http://moonflake.wordpress.com/2006/12/08/danie-krugel-more-fuel-for-the-fire/).  Some public debate, mostly suspicious of Krugel's claims, in Germany of all places can be found here (http://www.allmystery.de/themen/gw32741) for those who read German.

So, if any of Danie Krugel's friends, or perhaps he himself, read this, we eagerly await the time when he will demonstrate unequivocally that his method actually works.  The testimonials of hundreds or thousands of satisfied customers are not adequate, except for snake oil salesmen.

'Luthon64

Thanks for the post. I'll be sure to point anyone interested in Danie Krugel' "locator" here.

I stopped watching Carte Blanche a long time ago. It always amazes me how little research the reporters on these programs actually do. 3rd Degree is even worse. But then, they are only reporters.

And thanks for the link to Midweek Cuckoo (http://moonflake.wordpress.com/2006/12/06/midweek-cuckoo-danie-krugel/). Some good reading there.
"Comments may contain nuts" :D

Thanks for leading me to this forum!

What I don't understand about Danie's racket is this: his accomplice Leon Rossouw has a method for finding people who are missing, which uses existing technology. He is a licensed PI who has been instrumental in tracking down missing people and criminals on the run, using their cellphones. What on earth does he stand to gain by masking this fact with a woo-woo box?

I would like to think that if Danie and Leon are hoping to profit from this little stunt, that they will be sorely surprised when they discover that most companies who can afford to pay them for their 'device' will expect it to actually work, and for them to actually divulge the method by which it works, before they fork over any cold, hard cash. Since neither of those conditions can be met, what on earth do these two think they are going to gain with this charade? Especially considering that they've been at it for over two years, and aren't exactly rolling around in a pile of money.

Hiya moonflake - welcome to the forum, which needs more members such as yourself.

This is pure speculation on my part, but perhaps Krugel is happy to forgo widespread fame and fortune in favour of duping little old ladies and airheads for a low grade but steady stream of income, much like reflexologists, aromatherapists, tarot and palm readers, dowsers, and the like do.  If he was suddenly exposed as a huckster, that income stream would dry up (though perhaps not completely: a telling feature of gullibility is that it is irrepressible, so believers will continue to assert Krugel's authenticity).  An interesting question in this context is Krugel's actual success rates, bearing in mind that newspapers and other media vigorously pounce on successes but ignore the failures.

Still, I think that programmes such as 3rd Degree and Carte Blanche exhibit some social irresponsibility by presenting a credulous take on this kind of thing without a thorough and diligent follow-up.  As always, sensationalism overrides good sense.

Further forum discussions of the topic can be found

• JREF Forum thread #1 (http://forums.randi.org/showthread.php?t=62371)
• JREF Forum thread #2 (http://www.randi.org/forumlive/showthread.php?t=70055)
• Ubuntu forums (http://ubuntuforums.org/showthread.php?t=314232)
• MyBroadband forums (http://www.mybroadband.co.za/vb/showthread.php?t=60202)
• AboveTopSecret forums (http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread236431/pg1)

The reader will note that many of the assessments are sceptical, but - inevitably - such concepts as quantum entanglement and zero-point energy are invoked with conviction, authority, a hushed voice and a waggling forefinger by those least qualified to do so.

'Luthon64

Incredible! I just received this response to my original email to Carte Blanche suggesting they do a more skeptical follow up of Danie's device:


I can only hope that they'll do it right this time. I sent a long response with all the relevant links to various online discussions that have been going on regarding Danie's device, including this one and the JREF. Stay tuned!

That's good news. Please keep us updated on any new developments ;)

Danie Krugel has had dealings with occult practitioners (http://www.geocities.com/lanternlig/G/Geestesgesondheid.html) in the past?  Say it's not so!

The linked-to report deals with the supposed "moral decay" of students and how a return to god and christian values will heal "this sick world" (author's emphasis).  The prevalence and growth of satanism, an occult practice, features heavily, and Krugel is reported to be involved part-time with "Auksano," an organisation that claims to provide a "multi-professional" support structure for children and adults caught up in satanism and other "destructive subcultures."  Krugel became involved after being "gripped by the human suffering," in the main presumably that resulting from satanic doings.  The group also promotes the idea that some of Bloemfontein's doctors, lawyers, police- and businessmen are in the upper echelons of the more important satanic groups in the city.

How convenient a conspiracy.

Could it be that both Krugel's altruism and his science have hair, and yet he has trouble locating them?

'Luthon64

More forum discussions on Supersleuth Danie Krugel and his transcendent tracking technology here (http://board.fm06.de/index.php?showtopic=634172&st=20) (post #33 onwards) and here (http://www.rosebum.com/forum/viewtopic.php?p=131534).

'Luthon64

Come on Carte Blanche, we are waiting for the follow up.

Moonflake have you heard anything new in regards to when they will have the follow up?

They haven't said anything and there's no indication on their site. If they haven't done anything by the end of this month I'll follow up with them again.

Danie Krugel appears to have become involved in the Sheldean Human case (http://satravelbuddy.co.za/index.php?view=missing&id=66).  Sheldean is a seven year old girl whose whereabouts still remain unknown since she went missing from her Pretoria Gardens home on Sunday, February 18 this year.  The linked-to site permits comments by interested parties, and following is the chronological succession of comments relevant to Krugel's involvement.




'Luthon64

'Luthon64

'Luthon64

'Luthon64

And there the matter rests for now.  That last excuse about there being several users of the hairbrush is, of course, entirely bogus: there is a limited number of hairbrush users, therefore a limited number of hairs that can be forensically sorted by owner.  Easier yet, Danie could trace all of them by individual strands.  If his method actually works, one of his finds is bound to be Sheldean.

It will be interesting to see what Danie Krugel will achieve.  Solving this one should be a cinch for him if we are to trust all of the fawning adulation exhibited above.

Come, come, Danie.  The time for "uithaal en wys" is at hand, old chap.

'Luthon64

It goes to show that people in desperate need will try anything to find a loved one, and you can't blame them for that.
What pisses me off is that people like Danie Krugel will prey on the travesty that has befallen this family. I wish that i believed in a hell so that the likes of Danie Krugel, could be sent there for a time to pay for his crimes.

My thoughts are with the family and i just hope that this will all end well for them.

Yes, blaming people would seem a harsh thing to do, but it does raise the question why we are so quick to jettison our reasoning faculties just when we need them the most - in a charged and/or fearful situation.


Er, I think you may mean "tragedy" instead of "travesty."  Krugel certainly invites comparisons with the latter, and your sentiments are, I agree, probably justified: notice how often he is brought up as a solution, yet Sheldean is still missing.  Until he shows us all to be wrong, we must assume that Danie lives by peddling false hope via a deception that should have been exposed at birth.

For a bible-thumping moralist (http://www.nguniversitas.co.za/Structures.aspx), Krugel sure seems to violate the big g's ban on bearing false witness quite a lot, so maybe there's still a sound clobbering in store for him with a stone tablet and a hot pitchfork. 


Ditto.

'Luthon64

(From the eblockwatch site linked to earlier; emphasis added.)

The tragedy of Danie Krugel's deceit realised.  I think Danie owes Sheldean's family and friends a public explanation, if not an apology.  It would be the christian thing to do, but it's probably asking too much.

'Luthon64

Danie Krugel was at it some more (http://www.news24.com/Die_Volksblad/Nuus/0,,5-83_2083073,00.html) a few days ago, but this time with other policemen.  I hope that they look upon him as the FBI does on psychics offering their help.  ::)

Note what the article does not say: that Krugel's efforts actually pinpointed the location of the missing girl's body.  The unsuspecting reader may easily infer that Danie the Diviner played a crucial part.

Thus are myths born.

'Luthon64

Great gibbering gobs of gormless goo!  The madness of crowds (http://skynews4.typepad.com/my_weblog/2007/05/police_under_pr.html) (read the comments to feel both sadness and anger) has just grown by several orders of magnitude.  Currently it is focussed on the disappearance of young Madeleine McCann from a hotel in Portugal:So, once again, Danie Krugel has a brilliant opportunity to demonstrate his claimed ability to locate missing people with a sample of their hair.

Go, Danie, go!

But don't be surprised at a last-minute glitch that prevents Danie from giving assistance (or rather, saves Krugel's bacon).  This is becoming something of a regular feature, so I'll not start baking humble pie just yet.

'Luthon64

At this time, Madeleine McCann is still missing (http://www.utvlive.com/newsroom/indepth.asp?id=83077&pt=n).  The staunch gusto with which some had put forward Danie Krugel's possible involvement in locating her seems to have died with barely a whimper.  Maybe Danie will step up to the plate of his own accord – but don't hold your breath.  I'm sure he'd have absolutely no trouble finding a sponsor to pay his fare to Portugal and the UK.  Success in tracking down the missing four-year-old would just about guarantee him everlasting fame and fortune, and since he has apparently been approached in this regard, it is very curious indeed that Danie is keeping such a low profile.  Some might think he's skulking or shirking or using avoidance and evasion ploys but perhaps it's his diary that is too full of much more pressing engagements.

Also, there's still no sign of Carte Blanche's promised follow-up programme, now several months overdue.  Nor have Krugel's promises of a great revelation materialised.  Maybe we should hire Danie to find Ruda and Derek so as to remind them.

(And sometimes I get out of bed via its underside…)

'Luthon64

Is this bloke Danie Krugel for real?  Im asking as i would like to try and get in touch with him as i want to know if he could go to Portugal and help find Madeleine Mc Cann. Im an ex South African but my folks,sisters and brothers still live in SA. Im here in the Uk so can anyone help me out here?  Thanks

Yes, the man definitely exists.  He works as a glorified rent-a-cop at the Free State Central University of Technology (CUT) in Bloemfontein.  You can find his contact information here (http://www.cut.ac.za/sdirl?d=PROTECTION%20SERVICES):

Pictures of the man can be seen here (http://photos24.co.za/shop/popupimage.php?image=../images/pDB/webpix/-1-RAPPORT-2-NUUS-3-ALGEMEEN-D-20060618-N-Sondag%2018%20Junie%202006/20060614173601.kriegel1.jpg), here (http://photos24.co.za/shop/popupimage.php?image=../images/pDB/webpix/-1-RAPPORT-2-NUUS-3-ALGEMEEN-D-20060618-N-Sondag%2018%20Junie%202006/20060614173801.kriegel2.jpg), here (http://photos24.co.za/shop/popupimage.php?image=../images/pDB/webpix/-1-RAPPORT-2-NUUS-3-ALGEMEEN-D-20060618-N-Sondag%2018%20Junie%202006/20060614174001.kriegel3.jpg) and here (http://photos24.co.za/shop/popupimage.php?image=../images/pDB/webpix/-1-RAPPORT-2-NUUS-3-ALGEMEEN-D-20060618-N-Sondag%2018%20Junie%202006/20060614174101.kriegel4.jpg).

The question you need to ask yourself, however, is whether what Krugel claims is in any way likely to be true.  Certainly, his claims are highly improbable from a scientific point of view because they seem to violate our understanding of the world: how can DNA (or hair) possibly keep track of its source, even in principle?  Krugel refuses to say on what basis this is supposed to work.  He says it is, "Science, science, science!" but won't be more specific than that.  What is known is that Krugel is an ex-policeman who has as a collaborator a private investigator called Leon Rossouw who specialises in tracking people via their cellphones and the cell network.

But, please, feel free to invite Krugel to find Madeleine McCann, something he has been challenged to do at least twice.  If you're really lucky, you'll even get a reply from Krugel.  But before you do, you might want to read the posts in this thread carefully and follow the links where such have been provided.

'Luthon64

Did anyone catch Carte Blanche last night? Are you as baffled as I am?

I only caught the end (looking at the transcript I didn't miss much), but it seems they got a psychic and Danie Krugel to find the missing girls in the Gert van Rooyen case. They then dug at the spots where the psychic and Danie said these girls were. Found some bones. Had DNA analysis done on them. Found that they were human and some of them were female (but couldn't match the DNA to the parents of the missing girls). Showed the show to parents of the missing girls who said "now we can find closure". They said they were going to give the evidence they found to the police.

What evidence are they talking about? They didn't find any!  ??? My wife and I were completely baffled as to what the point of the whole show was.

Okay, let's get a little realistic, shall we?  But first, read the Carte Blanche transcript here (http://www.carteblanche.co.za/Display/Display.asp?Id=3362).

The short version: Some small bones and bone fragments were found by Carte Blanche at a dam near suspected child murderer/paedophile Gert van Rooyen's home.  van Rooyen, who supposedly committed suicide after killing his mistress in a police pursuit back in January 1990, is alleged to have abducted, molested and murdered at least five young girls in the Pretoria area.  The bones are said to have been found as a result of information provided by Danie Krugel, and also assisted by Marietta Theunissen who says she can talk to dead people.  Krugel used his "Science, science, science!" hair locating technology, while Theunissen says she chatted with one of the victims.  The bones were subjected to stringent DNA testing.  Importantly, though the bones could not be incontestably identified to be human, they were accepted to be human but could not be tied to any of the victims.

It is a given that supporters of Krugel and Theunissen will chalk this little charade up as an overwhelming success.  Ruda Landman most certainly did, swallowing the entire line fed by these two shameless hucksters.

Krugel was employed by the police for several years and is very likely to have retained contacts within SAPS, and it is very likely that he has access to inside information.  Also, the van Rooyen police docket disappeared some time ago.  The case was quite high profile and much has been written about it in the last 16 years.  It is, moreover, likely that the area identified for examination by Krugel and Theunissen is in some sense an obvious choice for hiding or disposing of a corpse.

But here's the cracker.  Theunissen has previously "worked" (http://www.republikein.com.na/content/kollig/Kollig_2006/Sep/21_ontmoet.php) on the van Rooyen case and was therefore acquainted with many of the facts:

Yet again Carte Blanche fails both its audience and its journalistic integrity by not mentioning some of these rather telling titbits.  What is needed is a controlled test, as per the James Randi Million Dollar Challenge (http://www.randi.org/research/index.html).  Almost as convincing would be if Theunissen and/or Krugel were to find Madeleine McCann.

But don't bet on that happening any time soon.

'Luthon64

I have posted a reference to this topic under the "Junk Science and Alternative Medicine" with the heading "BodyTalk & Quantum Quackery".

I am not going to repeat any of it here, other than my utter dissappointment in Carte Blanche for entertaining the likes of Danie Krugel and Marietta Theunissen.  We are all behind anyone who can assist with ciminal cases and these cases in particular, but are we not going a bit too far?  One can argue that one must follow every lead to solve a crime - this is absolutely true and cannot be disputed.  Should this, however, include crackpot theories as well?

Luthon64 could not have said it better

We need to INSIST that this "invention" be tested and proven under a controlled environment (shortly followed by - i would imagine - tarring and feathering of a certain quantum quack & co)

Hello and welcome to the forum, Sentinel.

We need to be careful here to distinguish what could be a genuine lead from that which is probably a hoax.  Krugel's supporters almost always and uniformly advance one or more of the following three arguments in favour of his claims:

• It is possible that he has discovered something novel;
• Krugel has been successful in other cases, and
• We must try even the most unlikely things when looking for missing loved ones.

To address the first point, of course it is entirely possible that Krugel really has discovered something new.  But is it probable?  Absolutely not!  Why?  Because the man just smirks "Science, science, science," while there is no known way this alleged technology can work as he says it does; he won't file for a patent or publish a scientific paper so that his alleged technology can be peer reviewed (he'd probably get a Nobel Prize just for being able to extract DNA signatures quickly from hair using his magic box, never mind tracking its source continuously); he refuses to undergo proper and controlled scientific testing; his history and current background are inconsistent with those of the lone genius inventor, and he is always entirely diffident when it comes to cases where his knowledge can be no better than that of the next person.  All of which is a tad suspicious, I think you'll agree.  And saying, as some have done, that he's an upstanding, trustworthy, humble person of high moral principles does not ― in fact, cannot ― absolve him of having to deliver credible evidence for his claims.  Similarly, the idea that he's worried about having his technology stolen is a washed out ruse: a patent will protect him quite well, and the James Randi validation protocol isn't interested in finding out how it works, only in finding out that it works.

The second point is selection and confirmation bias in their purest forms.  None of the cases Krugel has worked on and none of the tests he was given were adequately controlled to eliminate cheating on his part and/or making use of insider information.  The newspaper reports don't clearly state that Krugel's involvement was indispensable, and in one case, Krugel led a family around the country on a proverbial wild goose chase (see moonflake's blog for more details – link in an earlier post in this thread).

The third point is an appeal to emotions that has not been considered carefully enough: if the suggested technique is likely to be bogus then it is equally likely to be a waste of time and resources.  All it manages is to keep up the invariably false hopes of the friends and relatives of the missing person, and to further the ultimately selfish delusion, reputation and purse of the woo-woo practitioner.  Marietta Theunissen claims to have helped the police in more than 300 homicide cases, including suicides.  Her say-so is hardly evidence, but people, including herself, obviously want to believe her.  300 such cases are enough to do a statistical test to determine whether her "help" actually makes any difference to the success or effort when compared to cases where she is not involved, but such tests simply aren't done despite being relatively easy.  And saying, as some often do, that one must not criticise the "spiritual" work of such people because it brings comfort, ignores the fact that they are being lied to as well as the even deeper hurt that will ensue from finding out that it's a sham.  Thus, it should be clear how suggesting Krugel or Theunissen as a potential solution, given the scarcity of credible evidence to support their claims, is no more laudable than suggesting you go and stick your head under water until you have a vision of where your loved ones might be.  So again it would be far more sensible to invest that effort in proven techniques, like police work and forensics.

What it all comes down to is that if, at the end of the day, you can truthfully say to yourself that you've left the world a slightly more honest place than it was when you woke up, then your day was a worthwhile one.

'Luthon64

Luthon64, thank you for your welcome message…

You have said it all, and I can only add the following comments.

• What amazes me is that the likes of Krugel and Theunissen are called in again and again (mainly on the public’s request) but their claims of paranormal abilities are never properly validated, nor are accurate statistics provided, as you pointed out.
  
  False leads waste everybody's time.  If my memory serves me correctly, the detectives ended up in Swaziland, based on a false lead during the first stages of this investigation.  It is therefore imperative that leads are properly checked.  In the case of paranormal leads, not only should the information be validated but the source as well.
  
  
• I am not convinced that we will see the likes of Danie Krugel featuring as one of the James Randi applicants any time soon.  His claim is that it is “Science! Science! Science!” and the JREF offer a reward for proof of the paranormal.  No amount of debate will convince him that it is anything but science, even though we may argue that his “invention” exceeds what we consider as physically possible, thus paranormal.
  
  
• After the repeat of the story last night, Krugel mentioned during a demonstration that the key to his invention is the power source, but stops there.  There are only 3 possible types of power sources I can think of.  -1- Power known to man (why mention it then), -2- Paranormal power (in which case the JREF would like a demo), or -3- New technology.
  
  Should this, in fact, be a new breakthrough in power sources, I insist that the Department of Health and Safety investigate this thoroughly to check if it is not detrimental to other people’s health.  It could be radioactive or nuclear for all we know.
  

The only possible way to satisfy this debate would be for Krugel to patent the thing and give it to the world.  It’s as simple as that – Occam would approve.

What would his motive be for keeping it from the world?  Are we still in the Dark Ages where scientists are burnt on a stake by the Church?  Is it still misunderstood by the inventor himself? I think not.

The only probable reason is that Krugel’s “Ouija Board with Quantum GPS interface” is as much real as the myth that my Rottweiler can look into a person’s soul.  I have proof – just come very close and stare into her eyes!

Kind Regards,
Sentinel - Patiently waithing for the return of tarring and feathering. (Oops, I said it again!)

You're (still) welcome.  ;)



Well, the JREF's MDC doesn't care how it works, only whether it works.  They'll test dowsers, so Krugel certainly qualifies.  This has been pointed out to him and to the media as well.  Moreover, on the one hand he's claiming that it's "science," while on the other he won't play the science game.  That behaviour is more usually labelled "hypocrisy."



If Krugel has discovered a new energy source, that alone would qualify him for a trip to Stockholm, followed shortly by everlasting fame and fortune.  But it is hard to make sense of this enticing titbit of information: how can the energy source affect the performance of his machine, unless he's using the word "energy" the way woo-woos, rather than scientists, use it?  After all, energy can be transformed in all sorts of ways, irrespective of its source, so that assertion sounds a bit dodgy.



As indicated earlier, the usual answer to this question is that Krugel is worried that his technology will be stolen by others, but, as I pointed out earlier, there are several ways he could protect himself and still prove that it does what he says it does.  In fact, on reflection it seems to me more dangerous to play coy on your own because there's little to stop a determined gang from simply robbing him of it violently and then claiming it as their own or selling it to an interested buyer.  Such things happen anyway in South Africa regularly.  It would make much more sense, I think, to prove it to the world with a bang and only then fight off the offers once everyone knows you're the one who invented it.  But obviously we don't know all of the ins and outs, now do we?

'Luthon64

Hark! Herewith my vision of the future...

Last night’s 3rd Degree programme on e–TV featured a rebroadcast of the piece on Danie Krugel by Charlene Stanley & crew from a little more than a year ago.  The report apparently won some journalism prize or other and this fact was, of course, taken to mean that the report is actually good, responsible coverage of the issue.  The programme followed its customary format with a live lead-in by Debora Patta, followed by the report.  In her lead-in, Patta gave the reason for the rebroadcast (the prize), before posing the question whether this was revolutionary or a hoax, a question not pursued any further.  Unfortunately, we don’t have the necessary means, otherwise we would have recorded the episode for subsequent closer scrutiny.  However, we took down some notes while the programme was on air, so here’s a brief outline thereof with occasional comments.

After the rolling of the title, the viewer is informed via subtitles of the shocking missing-persons statistics in SA, especially those of children.  The narrator (Stanley) suggests that it would be wonderful if these people could be located by using a few strands of their hair.  She goes on to say that “some inventors” in Bloemfontein have cracked just this problem: tracing the source of a sample of “signature material.”  We may easily be mistaken in this, but both Dr 'Luthon64 and I seem to recall that it was at around this point that DNA was first mentioned in the original broadcast a year ago, but there is no mention of it this time.  Dr Matie Hoffman, a physicist of undisclosed affiliation, is shown, saying that there is no known way such a device can work as described.  Hoffman speaks for less than 15 seconds and his words mark the only moment of scepticism in the entire report.

Next up is a shot of Danie Krugel toying with a radio-controlled helicopter, about to take off in a grassy field.  His voiceover intones gravely that one hundred years ago flight was thought to be impossible, just as now his technology is thought impossible.  Bad analogy, Danie: scientists had at that time already figured out many of the basics of fluid dynamics; that’s why they kept on glueing wings with an airfoil cross-section on their experiments.  They knew theoretically how flight should be achievable, while there is no known science, past or present, that can account for what you’re claiming.  Anyway, Krugel intones a dire warning to offenders that they can run but not hide because he’ll be onto them.

Danie then goes on to describe how the Leigh Matthews case was the turning point for him that prompted him to adapt some “navigational equipment” to human hair, which equipment he had previously used for locating minerals.  He says that using a “proper hair sample,” its source can be traced in a “very short time.”  A testimonial is then provided by one Pierre Honnibal whose son disappeared.  Krugel allegedly found him in “20 minutes” and this convinced Honnibal that Krugel’s canonisation is a mere matter of time.  Honnibal’s endorsement is followed by a further endorsement, this time from an investigator named Erasmus speaking Afrikaans, while subtitles give an English translation.  Erasmus asserts in no uncertain terms that Krugel “helped” him, and that while he doesn’t know how Krugel’s technology works, he is totally convinced that it does work.

The next section then reports on some impromptu testing of Danie by Stanley and her crew.  The first test involves a crew member hiding in the vicinity of a small hill.  They take a cutting of his hair.  The viewer is told that the target’s cell ’phone is left behind and that he only has a small video camera and a GPS to be used for later verification of his position identified by Krugel.  Meanwhile, Krugel himself is located “about four kilometres away,” taking measurements after the hair sample has been handed to him.  Stanley tells us that Krugel won’t allow them to film him during the test.  There is no mention of any safeguards against cheating, e.g. a third party watching and relaying information to Krugel.

The second test again involves a crew member hiding in a coffee shop in downtown Bloemfontein.  Krugel is told that the target is somewhere in a suburb called “Pelissier,” while actually in a neighbouring suburb called “Fichardtpark.”  We are shown a tuft of hair held between a thumb and the first forefinger joint (presumably cut from the target’s head) and it is clear that very few, if any, hair roots are included.  This is handed to Krugel who takes a few measurements, allegedly “gets a signal” and eventually locates the target to within a few hundred metres, though it isn’t reported just how long the procedure took.  A picture of a map is shown indicating Krugel’s prediction and the actual location of the target but it is shown too briefly and indistinctly to conclude anything useful.  This time no comments are made about what equipment the target had, and again no mention is made of any safeguards and/or controls against cheating by Krugel.

The next test involves a “smaller version” of Krugel’s equipment, deployed in the search for an infant who had been hidden earlier under a blanket in a house.  A hair cutting is given to Krugel who then locates the child but again many important details are simply skipped over in favour of the wow-factor.  The fourth test is a real case in which a domestic servant had stolen jewellery and other goods from her employer and then disappeared.  Krugel is shown inspecting a bucket of dirty water, presumably the remains of a mopping operation of the servant’s quarters.  We are told that Krugel finds “three strands of hair.”  He then sets his gear up at night, supposedly “to give the suspect enough time to get home.”  Or maybe to line up his ducks – take your pick.  Next thing, Leon Rossouw appears.  Rossouw is a private investigator and occasional partner to Krugel, and he specialises in locating people using their cell ’phones and the cell infrastructure, an important piece of information that is simply omitted in Stanley’s report.  Rossouw investigates for the “next few days,” and eventually finds the suspect “about 200 metres” from Krugel’s pinpoint.

… Continued.

The fifth and final test is again a real case in which four teenage girls went missing in Bloemfontein.  Pictures and a hairbrush are given to Krugel who “asks around” if anyone has seen the girls, but without any success.  Why, one wonders, would Krugel need to “ask around” if he has this magnificent invention?  After all, it is almost a certainty that there would be at least some hair on the girl’s hairbrush Krugel was given, a point that wasn’t raised at all.  The girls turned up later that evening at a shopping mall (so they couldn’t have been all that missing).  They were asked where they had been between 14:00 and 16:00 that day, which was when Krugel did his location shimmy.  It turns out that the girls weren’t far from the place Krugel had identified.  It wasn’t made clear whether the girls had been moving around during the period in question, nor what other attractions besides shopping malls there were in the area, nor whether any of them had cell ’phones.

At the end of the report, Charles Nqakula, SA’s Minister of Safety and Security, is shown saying how magnificent Krugel’s invention is, how criminals must beware, how much this will do to advance respect for SA’s science in the world, and how they are “collaborating closely” with the inventors.  Oh, and Nqakula briefly mentions getting DNA from hair as the signature material.

Now that we have listened fairly dispassionately to what Stanley and Krugel would have us believe, we have the following urgent request to anyone who wants to put Krugel to the test: get two or three performing magicians to help design and observe the tests because they know what to look for and how to avoid being tricked.  Because as long as reporters like Stanley pretend that (a) their “experiments” and “tests” are credible, and (b) that they have done their job properly by airing a single physicist’s dissenting voice, they are lying to both the public and to themselves.

'Luthon64

Thanks for the summary - I never caught the original 3rd degree show, or this rescreening, and unlike that paragon of journalistic integrity, Carte Blanche, they don't seem to think it's worth offering online transcripts. So it was interesting to see that they didn't really do anything different in their piece than CB did in theirs... Susan Puren must be mightily miffed at being passed over on this one, seeing as her stories might as well have been filmed from the same outline.

The Stanley report on Krugel predates the first of the two Carte Blanche inserts by about four months and is the first TV report we're aware of that covers the topic, apart from it possibly giving Carte Blanche the impetus for their efforts.  What puzzles me is that 3rd Degree's Debora Patta can be such a bloodhound when challenging social or political injustices and abuses, and simultaneously such a puppy in matters where confrontation is equally apropos.  As I hint at in my summary, the situation is portrayed in such a way that the casual observer would be tempted to think that the orthodoxy is reluctant to acknowledge, let alone accord due recognition to, the lone genius inventor for whose claims there are heaps of substantial evidence.  That is, the man is Galileo Krugel.

Sad, such ignorance. :(

'Luthon64

I didn't get to see carte blanche's two stories about Danie, but fortunately was able to read the transcripts.  I recall from this story that the camera man was sent to a cemetery to hide and be found.  This bothered me for a long time, especially in light of forcing techniques which many "mentalist" magicians use (one of your crack debunking team in addition to the "sleight detectors", I'm sure).

If we entertain this idea for a little while, consider that it is very likely that the cameraman thought that he had come-up with the idea himself.  The reporter and crew on the scene would all be very impressed (as impressed as when the mentalist asks "were you thinking of the 3 of diamonds?").  So how could it be achieved?  Cleverly constructed sentences can be used to place an idea in a person's head, usually by absence which gets the participant to "fill-in" the missing word or by use of similar-sounding phrases.  You might talk for a while and drop-in these sentences:

"... my device was used on a case where the sample was found under six feet of cementry on a construction site ..." (we usually tune errors like that out in our daily conversation having understood the real meaning: cement).

"... I received a lot of criticism in the early days and they were grave.  Digging through books I found that Einstein suffered the same criticism ..." (said fast enough it is not detected and with the right emphasis can be "received").

You could construct any number of disguised sentences and use cliches like "dead centre" to hammer-home the idea.  But instead of waving your cape and writing a prediction on a card, you ask them to go "find a place of rest for a while so that you can be comfortable while we try to track you down".

Forget about the hair, it's too easy, this guy's "signal" will be very strong.

Of course we are ascribing some amazing abilities to someone who isn't known to have had magical interests in his past (did he work as a police entertainer perhaps :P).  Maybe it's all a lot more ordinary than that, are cameramen in he habit of bringing GPS devices on shoots?  Perhaps Danie was kind enough to provide them with a spare unit he had available and it would prove useful when later they could correlate the results with his actual coordinates.

The transcript has only six lines about this entire experiment, no information on who suggested the test, every item that went with the camera man, were there other guesses before the cemetery was chosen, were they told when to start looking (cameraman phone in) or did they agree to wait "5 minutes" (which indicates to the cameraman that he should be in place, ready to be located within the time limit)?  There are too many questions and not enough description of the test.

---

On another forum, someone suggested that maybe it's all a big ruse that the Minister and the media are in on, a way to tell the less educated criminal out there that the days of getting away with it are over - the police have a new weapon.  Maybe that's why Mazarakis was so vehement in support of Danie.

But again, we may be ascribing too much to Danie Krugel.

Oops, on that classic example of Argumentum-Ad-Hominem, I will leave it for a day.

Indeed.  There are, as you suggest, far too many specific factors that haven't been adequately controlled for in these "tests."  That's why they don't – and can't – count as evidence.  But I think it's human nature (not wanting to appear the fool) that has the reporting teams all uppity and defensive about their reports.  It seems their minds were already made up about Krugel when they assembled their "tests" and so any criticism of the "tests" is perceived as personal criticism and rejected as such, a perception that is, of course, plain twaddle.



Hmm, it's possible, yes, but I don't think it's likely, given how convoluted the story is, but then it could be a case of the crime fighting equivalent of steganography.  In the SA context, it would be more effective, I think, to invoke another mode of magical thinking, say one in which the spirits of ancestors feature as "supercops."  There may be some obscure family – or similar loyalty – ties between Krugel and the report producers, but again this is pure speculation.

The real problem is how easily many people accept those reports as gospel (or simply are apathetic) instead of seeing through them and loudly challenging Krugel and the purveyors of the reports to put forward some actual evidence (instead of anecdotes and a host of kindergarten "tests").  By playing coy, Krugel is milking this propensity that many people seem to have.

'Luthon64

I'm new to these parts, so don't bite me.
What I would like to know if this Danie chap's invention is so bloody marvellous, why isn't somebody sending him over to Portugal to find Madeleine McCann?

Welcome, welcome!  Biting, when it happens, usually comes later…



Send him?  Considering the substantial reward for returning Madeleine McCann, it's telling that Krugel didn't leap at the chance immediately.  Plus, he's been repeatedly invited to do so – check out the rest of this thread and the News and current events sub-forum for more about this.  moonflake's blog (http://moonflake.wordpress.com) has quite a bit on Krugel too.

'Luthon64

Danie Krugel is involved in the Madeleine McCann disappearance.  He is featured in a Bad Science blog entry (http://www.badscience.net/?p=544):The bottom line, then, is that many newspapers are happy to peddle sensationalist bunkum, despite the protestations of many qualified experts.  They seem to think that contrasting one expert's view against that of an unknown like Krugel plus anecdotes is sufficient to qualify as "balanced reporting."  What they have evidently lost sight of is the sheer volume of experts and expertise arrayed behind the objector, while Krugel stands largely alone.

But what else is new?

'Luthon64

Any evidence for this high success rate, Danie?  I mean other than your say-so?



No.  No, he didn't.  They found some bones that could have been human.  Nothing was actually validated.  So please check your facts and stop lying to your readers.



Krugel is a glorified rent-a-cop at the Central University of Technology in Bloemfontein.  He's not a scientist or an engineer.  He didn't become famous here by locating the "five South African girls who went missing during the Eighties," presumably the Gert van Rooyen victims.  Was it five or six he claims to have found?  So please check your facts and stop lying to your readers.



It was 3rd Degree that first brought Krugel onto TV, not Carte Blanche.  And the thing about those "six children" has yet to be authenticated.  Lies do not become true just because you repeat them over and over.

'Luthon64

Sanity of sorts seems to be prevailing on the Sky website
http://news.sky.com/skynews/article/0,,91210-1287380,00.html

The latest (October) issue of the SA edition of marie claire magazine has an article on Gert van Rooyen's six victims.  The article, titled "Do You Recognize these Women?", features digitally processed photos of the six missing girls.  The photos show what the girls might look like were they alive today, which is the selling point.  The story, however, is mostly about the facts surrounding the disappearances themselves and van Rooyen's alleged role therein.

Danie Krugel isn't mentioned at all.

'Luthon64

I'd just like to clarify that this guy has been around a long time. I first saw an SABC 2 progamme about his amazing machine around 2004 (?) which utterly disgusted me that they could air such nonsense. Then coincidentally just a couple of months before Carte Blanche aired their show I saw an article in the paper about how the parents of a student who had gone missing had been led on a wild goose chase all over the country when Danie told them their son was "travelling north" and all sorts of other rubbish. A couple of months after he'd gone missing his body was found in the Knysna forest where he'd died of a fall or something, and lain undiscovered.

Even for journalists as shocking as South African's appear to be, it surely wouldn't take very long to find these people and interview them about what they think of DK. I doubt it would be complimentary.

Welcome to the forum, Bast. :)

Thanks for the correction re Krugel's first TV appearance.  Your date estimate seems to coincide with an SABC news item dated 8 December 2004 (http://www.sabcnews.com/south_africa/general/0,2172,93664,00.html).

Googling "Danie Krugel" (http://www.google.co.za/search?hl=en&q=%22danie+krugel%22&btnG=Google+Search&meta=) (incl. the inverted commas) at present returns about 14,200 hits.  A month ago it was less than 50.  Thus are legends born.

'Luthon64

Hi

Glad to see I am not the only one who thinks this is the biggest bunch of crap ever.
Btw. Sunday's Rapport(http://www.news24.com/Rapport/Nuus/0,,752-795_2197231,00.html (http://www.news24.com/Rapport/Nuus/0,,752-795_2197231,00.html)) featured him as well.

Cheers

Johan

Hello, and welcome to the forum, johanvz.

The article you linked to seems to me only slightly more level-headed than several others I’ve read, but that may be more because Afrikaans is not my first language. ;)

Now why would that be?  If Krugel was in Portugal for four days in mid-July, and it is now almost mid-October (i.e. almost three months later), then there has been plenty of time for searching.  And to keep a search of some seven to ten hectares (see below) a secret, especially in the high profile case of Madeleine McCann and the particular locality, is, I suspect, nigh impossible.  So it seems that the investigators have some other reason for seemingly ignoring Krugel’s info.



That is, an area of between 700×(2×50) m² = 70,000 m² and 700×(2×70) m² = 98,000 m², or roughly seven to ten hectares.  Hmm, in other of Krugel’s “successes” he allegedly was able to achieve much better accuracy than that, say a house of perhaps 300 m².  Whence comes the areal discrepancy of some two to three orders of magnitude?  Scope creep, maybe.



And they ask, “What harm can it do?”  Wasting time and resources that would be better utilised doing real investigation, for one.  Emotional distress for another.



Towards  the end, the Rapport article then asserts, “Maar hy het ook onbetwiste sukses behaal” [But he has also achieved uncontested successes], and lists the cases of the 15 year old Chadinha girl’s disappearance in November 2004, the housekeeper Nancy Moeti in July 2005 and the body of five year old Naledi Ntebele.  The implication is that these apparent successes are due to Krugel’s magnificent hair locating technology, rather than, say, actual detective work.  Moreover, the article neglects to mention Krugel’s manifest failures, which should not be ignored if for no other reason than the interests of “balanced reporting.”

'Luthon64

The upside is that the top Google hits all seem to be links to skeptical pages. All except for daniekrugelfacts.com...

Tonight's edition of 3rd Degree on etv will examine the Madeleine McCann case.  Perhaps a forum member with the necessary facilities could record it just in case Danie Krugel's involvement comes up.

Almost predictably, Krugel has recently acquired a fan club (http://www.daniekrugelfacts.com).

'Luthon64

Ooops & curses!  Beat to the punch by bluegray V…  ;)

'Luthon64

No mention of Danie it seems - although I didn't watch the whole program...

I did, and it was the most meaningless regurgitation of known theories and fantasies imaginable. A nice flying holiday to the UK and Portugal for Miss Manas and crew. What utter crap!

Last night’s etv news bulletin reported that  some bones had been unearthed (http://www.dailynews.co.za/?fArticleId=4128559) during excavations for a swimming pool on a property adjoining that of alleged paedophile and child murderer Gert van Rooyen.  The bones are thought to be of human origin and have been sent for forensic examination.

If these bones turn out to be human and can be traced back to one or more of van Rooyen’s victims, there will be a whole chicken coop worth of egg on the faces of Danie Krugel, Ruda Landman and Carte Blanche.  It is, however, unlikely that this embarrassment will be acknowledged.

In a related matter, Madeleine McCann is still missing, while from Danie Krugel and his fan club only silence issues forth.  It might be hoped that their silence is a mortified one.

'Luthon64

Thanks to moonflake's post here (http://moonflake.wordpress.com/2007/11/26/wireds-10-great-snake-oil-gadgets/) for providing the link to Wired's 10 Great Snake-Oil Gadgets (http://blog.wired.com/gadgets/2007/11/10-awesome-gadg.html), where Danie Krugel makes an appearance.

 A young girl, Anisha van Niekerk, went missing on the 25th November, sadly her body was found a couple of days ago. Eblockwatch sent me an email this morning with a run down of the search for Anisha van Niekerk, in the notes for the 30th November it says that Danie Krugel contacted Eblockwatch and offered to search for Anisha provided " the media is not informed of his involvement".
Here is the link:  http://www.eblockwatch.co.za/index.php?view=missing&id=165  (http://www.eblockwatch.co.za/index.php?view=missing&id=165)

It makes for some interesting reading about how Danie Krugel works - how did he know about Anishas' disappearance, he's in Bloemfontein? Does someone from the SAPS contact everytime someone goes missing? What are his fees? He says he doesn't charge the families anything, but who pays for all his travelling costs?

His excuse for as to why the "reading" may be a little off -
"Danie reiterates that the readings may be off course because storms in JHB and Bloemfontein affect the readings, to be more specific he offers to travel to Kempton to continue the search"


Reading about the frantic search for Anisha is heartrending.
Krugels' involvement makes my blood boil - the man should be stopped.

My deepest sympathies to her family  :(

So the news says that the bones found were in fact of an animal. Danie's methods are yet to be debunked.

His latest involvement was in the 11 day search for missing pilot Dirk Booysen.

The desperate family asked for his assitance, it appears.

You can follow the whole drama of the search (http://www.avcom.co.za/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=28629) on the AVCOM (Aviation Community) Forum.  
In the main thread dealing with the search, a heartwarming story unfolds of aviators and aviation enthusiasts volunteering to help search or support the search for a fellow aviator under the most trying of circumstances. When Danie Krugel was mentioned, several pilots warned that he is a fraud, but his help had already been accepted.

After 8 days, the official Search and Rescue (S&R) mission was suspended and a team of private volunteers continued.  The private team co-ordinator (Bessinger) was irritated by D.K's involvement.  They had to divert valuable resources to go check co-ordinates that D.K supplied.  Evidently other clairvoyants were also involved, reporting that the pilot was alive, standing next to his Cessna, waiting for help.  This didn't help keep the family calm and rational.

In the end, sound reasoning by the coordinator and an experienced mountain helicopter pilot lead them to the wreck, near where the radar tracks and Vodacom signals indicated he may have gone down.  D.K.'s coordinates were out.

After the pilot was found, sadly killed on impact, a short thread  (http://www.avcom.co.za/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=28901&start=0&postdays=0&postorder=asc&highlight=) appeared in which Danie's involvement was discussed again. This time the punches weren't pulled.

If by “yet to be debunked” you mean exposing exactly what Krugel is up to, then you’d be correct.  But if instead you mean that Krugel’s methods still need to be shown to be ineffective and based on hype, you’d be wrong:  There are several cases where he has failed abysmally and it is in the nature of people and the popular media to push our collective “wowee!” button by punting the successes (without properly investigating them, either) and disregarding the failures.  Moreover, the scientific approach demands that we regard such an implausible claim as false until the evidence in its favour compels us to change that view.  Krugel’s only evidence is anecdotal, which is a kind way of saying “at best feeble.”



Thank you for that update – it’s yet another link in a long chain of Krugel’s deceptions.  The really interesting question concerns just what it will take for Joe Public finally to see the jarring inconsistencies in Krugel’s accounts and come to the only obviously workable conclusion: Danie Krugel is either severely deluded or a liar.

'Luthon64

Someone challenged DK: Letter to Danie Krugel (http://01universe.blogspot.com/2007/12/letter-to-danie-krugel.html)

Interesting.  Owen Swart's experience when approaching Danie Krugel very much mirrors our own on two prior occasions: a reply consisting entirely of deafening silence.  Maybe Krugel thinks we're just too sarcastic.

'Luthon64

Indeed. Perhaps my prior posts (which were far more sarcastic in tone) burned that bridge. Oh well.

-Owen

http://www.thestar.co.za/?fArticleId=4224080

What do you know, he was spot on all along...  ::)
How do you misinterpret coordinates?

Yah, we spotted the streetlamp-mounted “Saturday Star” headline posters which read something like, “‘I Know Where Maddie Is’ - SA Cop.”  Thinking it might be Krugel, we immediately bought a paper and, sure enough, there he was on page three.

We think the article could have done with quite a bit more sceptical counterbalance, and we found two issues particularly bothersome:No.  The epithet “The Locator” first arose here in this very forum.  It had absolutely nothing to do with Krugel’s alleged success.  Had Underhill bothered to do a little actual research, rather than twiddling the public’s wowee knobs, she’d have discovered that Krugel’s so-called “successes” do not withstand scrutiny, being based on hype, testimonial, anecdote and a convenient disregard for the man’s several failures.

The second point is the one raised by bluegray V: how, exactly, does one misinterpret coordinates?  It seems a safe bet that Krugel uses GPS (i.e. global) coordinates (rather than, say, SA cadastral survey coordinates), because the article states that his equipment makes use of satellite technology.  Also, if he was using a less common coordinate system, one might expect him to make this clear to the searchers.

Interestingly, the article quotes Krugel as saying that his equipment is in the process of being patented.  We’ll see whether that’s true or not.  Elsewhere, the point is made that Krugel does all his “locating” at no charge, and much is made of his “concern” for missing persons.  Ultimately, these rhetoric devices are meant to suggest that Krugel is a generous, giving person whose main concern is helping people with little thought for himself.  While all of that may be true, it does not – and cannot – affect our scepticism towards the physical claims he is making with regard to hair and his “Matter Oriented System” until he puts forward some real evidence, for example a double-blind test conducted by a credible authority.

At the same time, it must again be reiterated that the Star has served the reading public poorly with this article that has a decidedly credulous flavour.  Just what will it take for journos and editors to understand that when a few eminently qualified experts say that there is no known way Krugel’s device can work as he describes, it isn’t a case of two or three opinions against Krugel?  Because they seem to have a hard time with the idea that there are tens, even hundreds of thousands of scientists rallied behind those dissenting experts.  Moreover, the “suppressed genius inventor” myth à la Galileo is, while very romantic and appealing, an outdated, easily punctured fairytale, which, more importantly, says precisely nothing about whether Krugel can do what he says he can.

'Luthon64

Well neither actually. I'm merely showing interest in what the hell this guy is doing. You've got to admit that there's something strange and unprecedented in the way he operates. And yes it does activate the 'wowee' switches in most people but I don't think you can blame them. It's some strange shit.

What I would like to see is either him getting properly exposed as a fraud or his methods being made public.

Also how long is he going to take to get his device patented. Or is that where the problem is?

I don't see any novelty in what he does, it is the same trick that psychics use but with a background in police investigation it means that he can make (slightly) better guesses.

In applying for a patent, an inventor is required to expose every facet of the functioning of the device, the more explicit the better because in order for another person to copy the idea they would need to make at least six fundamental changes for the law to recognise that it is not a violation of the patent.  If Danie's patent application is "It uses quantum 'n stuff" then it will be thrown out because it would easily violate other patents from the word go.

The patent application is mostly posturing, because an application makes the POS (I mean MOS) seem credible.  Even if the patent application is rejected, he can go on for years continuing to say that it is in the process of a patent application (simply by submitting a "It uses quantum 'n stuff 'n shit" amendment - or even by NOT resubmitting and ignoring the rejection).  You have to remember that although patents are very public; the patent application process is very private (the idea is not yet protected by law).  You are not even allowed to call the patent office and confirm that a patent has been submitted by a particular person.

But what weight is added by having a patent?  It can be used as a "parking space" for a future idea.  There are patents for the perpetual motion machine (US20070246939), free energy devices, and so on.  Does that mean that the device works or that the person is "reserving" the (ridiculous) idea?

On the topic of Krugel’s purported patenting of his technology, here’s an interesting titbit (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patent_prosecution):If Krugel is seeking a patent in South Africa, as seems reasonable to suppose, all of the above plays directly into his hands and we should see some action soonish.

But I for one won’t be holding my breath.

'Luthon64

This just in. This article appeared in the Rapport yesterday, but isn't up on their website yet:


This is an alarming tendency... when an opportunistic kook starts moving in a medical direction.

Alarming indeed, thanks for the post.
Seems that Krugel doesn't have a problem with being tested, as long as it's not a proper test... Unless Maryna van Wyk is as skilled in the art of detecting frauds as she is in writing researched one sided puff pieces, I wouldn't take this "koeranttoets" seriously. I doubt there were proper controls and it sounds like the usual unproven claims from Krugel, eagerly excepted by gullible professionals who should know better.

As for Dr. Frieda Pienaar, it is possible her comments are taken out of context, because she does not actually endorse the product. Although some people might certainly get that idea from reading the article. Maybe someone should contact her for comment.

Thanks for that important update, CaptainKlingon.

I have gone to the trouble of translating the article for those whose Afrikaans is anywhere between rusty and non-existent.  Any suggestions for improved translation are, of course, welcome.

Opportunistic kook, indeed!  Clearly, I must have missed the lecture where “the principle according to which materials of the same kind communicate amongst themselves” was explained and that is why I haven’t stumbled on Krugel’s breakthrough.

'Luthon64

The original Rapport article has been posted here (http://www.news24.com/Rapport/Nuus/0,,752-795_2275781,00.html).

'Luthon64

Am I reading this wrong, or does the article say that a test-tube containing a thimble-sized lump of breast cancer was detected as containing cancer, and a test tube with only healthy blood was not? In other words, Danie's magic device v2.0 can detect when naked-eye tumours are floating around in clear test tubes, and when they are not? Holy double-blind testing, batman!

Ooopsie, my bad translation. :-[

I read "’n speldekop-grootte borskankergewas" as "’n speldedop-grootte borskankergewas", so the correct translation should be "a pinhead-sized breast cancer growth."


'Luthon64

Well, that's marginally better, but still not what I'd call foolproof!

Given that Danie has now voyaged into the arena of medicine, which is at least slightly more regulated in SA than policework, do we think that he may actually have to subject his new 'device' to some measure of quality control or certification before it can be employed as a medical diagnostic device? Given the proliferation of alternative medicine diagnostic devices that do precisely nothing, I suspect not, but a girl can hope.

moonflake posted a nice review of Krugels new cancer fighting services here: http://moonflake.wordpress.com/2008/02/28/danie-krugel-expands-his-imaginary-product-line/

Report: Demonstration of the Krügel Theory Tester (KTT) to a Panel of Experts and Specialists (http://www.daniekrugelfacts.com/Report.pdf) – 12 June 2008.

Meet the “KTT.”  Its latest claim to fame seems to be the acquisition of an official name and a catchy acronym.

The report is too full of holes to be taken seriously, chiefly in regard to an apparent lack of any methodological safeguards against deception.  Moreover, the largest test distance was five metres – easily within visual range, and one must, then, ask whether Krügel knew each time exactly where the target sample was.  The report claims that the investigating team consisted of ten experts/specialists, each with a minimum Ph.D. qualification, but only five signatures are shown.  I think that these people have done themselves a grave professional disservice if I am correct in supposing that the tests were conducted on terms and conditions stipulated by Krügel himself.

The report concludes:

“Revolutionary” indeed!  That’s why I’m still wholly unconvinced; quite the opposite, actually: I’m alarmed that these experts seem not to have taken adequate precautions against being misled on so “revolutionary” a technology and instead given it their collective thumbs-up based on a single and by all available accounts very poorly designed test session.  One might be excused for suspecting collusion.

'Luthon64

I agree, I sent an email to the Prof. JFR Lues to learn more. Will see what happens...

This is what we have to go on:
Over at least 90°? What is that supposed to mean? I hope it does not mean that 0° shows at 6 o'clock and more than 90° is from 9 to 3 o'clock. That would just be ridiculously imprecise.

The rest is basically a summary of the panel's credentials and dubious claims of possible applications. As if Phd's can't be deceived.

It is clear that this is the sort of report that you release when you have no evidence to support your claims, but you want to impress a few gullible people to attract investment.

Probably nothing at all, but it’s nonetheless an excellent idea to attempt finding out more about this from those who conducted the testing.



Yes, it is difficult to make any sense of almost everything in the report.  Details are scant and, where given, are ambiguous, incomplete and/or hard to follow.  The extreme brevity and awkward compositional style of the report are also unhelpful.



Quite so.  As James Randi points out, scientists are ill equipped to detect fraud because nature doesn’t lie or cheat, whereas people often do, especially when there’s some self-interest at stake, which is clearly the case in this Krügel affair.



Agreed, but Krügel might also be planning to use the report in (perhaps partial) “substantiation” of his alleged patent application about which, by the way, not a single further word or whisper has been heard since its announcement several months ago.

'Luthon64

[nofollow]http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/4014[/nofollow]

And as suspected, I haven't heard anything from Prof. JFR Lues yet...

I've just discovered that two of my favourite bloggers are actually the same person, by reading the response to Danie's latest claims at www.vood00.wordpress.com (http://www.vood00.wordpress.com)

Seems that Krügel is getting very proactive in his campaign to deceive the gullible. He will no doubt try to use the following challenge as proof that his machine works: http://prometheusongebonde.wordpress.com/2008/07/27/the-detective-the-machine-the-missing-children-and-the-television-reporter/

For someone that claims all the wonderful things his revolutionary machine is able to do, he sure is resorting to some dubious tactics to convince people. No need for ridiculously incomplete reports or R500 000 challenges. Just show us that it works in a properly controlled test. If it works he will be rich beyond his wildest dreams in no time, and he can then donate any amount he wishes to charity.
He is perfectly aware not many people in SA can spare anywhere near R500 000 - let alone the relatively small skeptic community. This is not a serious challenge, just another puff of smoke to confuse the gullible.

But not all people can see through these deliberate deceptions. Too bad some of them have important sounding degrees.

PS. Prof. Lues is still MIA

Whatever else he might be – scoundrel, con-artist, knave and opportunist – you have to hand it to Krügel: he certainly knows how to promote himself.  Every few months or so he creates a bit of a stir, one just big enough to keep the story gently simmering.  If he actually had anything real, he’d’ve quietly gotten on with the business of stunning the world instead of wasting time and effort on trying to convince everyone through his silly horse-and-pony show.  I think the first commenter on the “Prometheus Unbound” blog story gets it right in suggesting that Krügel’s latest manoeuvre is just a trick that will allow him to say later on, “See?  These sceptics wouldn’t meet my challenge!”  One has to concede that he engineered it all quite adeptly.

'Luthon64

I've just concluded a bit of electronic snooping: Download the 'report' PDF from daniekrugelfacts.com, right-click on the file and view the properties. You will see that the author of the pdf has been captured as AM Koorts. Now, this could mean nothing, as computers get names and get shuffled around (especially at universities), but I was able to find a Prof AM Koorts from the University of Pretoria with a simple Google search.
Anyone else know this person, or know of any previous links with Danie Krugel?
Please note that this might be complete coincidence, as the name in the pdf document comes from the machine name on which the pdf-creator software is run. It could just be the name of whoever handles Danie's website, or a friend or neighbour who converted the document to pdf. Interesting, nevertheless.

Another Krügel failure.  Maybe Flanagan was wearing a toupee on account of his age and that’s why Krügel couldn’t get a fix on him… ::)

'Luthon64

From The Independent on Saturday: Desert search of hope

Seems like a perfect case for Danie to show how his machine works, open desert and a DNA sample to work with. Why would the good Mr Krügel not offer his services from the start though? Why wait till he is approached by the family? Probably waiting till the price is right...

Maybe the vast amounts of oil in desert will interfere the outcome?

From Carte Blanche: Secret Science Tested

Only if he puts an oil sample in his scam contraption...

Heard on the radio today that the family did ask for his help and he is on his way to Dubai. Hopefully his detective skills will help them out, but he will no doubt claim that his machine did the work. I guess you can't blame the family for clinging to even false hope. That blame is squarely on the shoulders of the unscrupulous Danie Krügel, who once again will prey on the emotions of people in need to further his own fortune.

Looks like Dubai’s police authorities are making use of some good sense (http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=123&art_id=vn20080911111919628C403941).

'Luthon64

Controversial inventor wants to look for missing woman (my bold)

Good to see the media is at least reporting accurately on this fraudster. Danie, as you can see, the critics are not quiet at all, just as you have, contrary to what you believe, a pathetic success rate...

I wonder for what reason though, if it is because they don't want any interference, then fine. But if it is for political reasons, or that they think this machine is somehow special, then they are acting silly as well.
Even though Krügel's machine is super secret, and maybe that is why they don't want to let it in, I can assure them they need not worry. A clock radio has more advanced electronics than that glorified contraption of his.

Please help me compile a list of cases that DK was involved in here: http://forum.skeptic.za.org/general-skepticism/danie-krugel%27s-success-rate/

I think there are several links to DK’s failures to be found in moonflake’s blog entries (http://moonflake.wordpress.com) on DK.  Sadly, the blogger is presently on a sabbatical for an indeterminate period.  IIRC, there were three such entries on DK, but there’s a search facility provided by the WordPress hosting software.

(I’m posting this here so as not to “contaminate” the DK success rate thread.)

'Luthon64

Thanks. Yeah, moonflake is missed. I haven't had time to go through his/her blog yet, but will do so when I can. In the meantime don't be afraid to contaminate the success thread, I will edit it as I see fit ;)

I meant to answer this before but it fell through the cracks in my head.  A conspiracy theorist might say that the Dubai police have something to hide and are worried that Krügel will find something they would rather leave undiscovered.  Call me gullible, but somehow I don’t think that’s the case… ;)



Yes, I think it’s simply that Krügel refuses to open his magic box for purposes of inspection and therefore they won’t let him enter.  They’re worried about woo-woo (or some other similarly devastating narcotic) being smuggled into the country because they’ve got too much of their own as it is.



That would explain why a clock radio, unlike Krügel, actually works reliably. :D

'Luthon64

IOL - Winter family pin hopes on Dubai meeting

As suspected, the Dubai authorities won't let in his super secret MOS. Come on Danie, just show them that it's no more than a high school science project with fancy lights - I'm sure after the laughter died down they will let you continue to go play in the desert.
I must say, your locator is not much of a locator if you have to actually go to the object you want to locate...

Anyway. Hopefully the Winters will now be spared the expenses of shipping DK and his MOS around and focus on better ways to find what they are looking for. I am sickened by the way DK keeps taking advantage of their desperation and feeding them false hope.

Read that again: “Krügel … has … a system that can track missing people anywhere in the world using a strand of hair.”  As bluegray V has pointed out, why the need, then, to enter the United Arab Emirates (UAE) at all?  He could measure from SA and perhaps one or two other countries further north that aren’t so fussy about importing handheld woo-woo boxes if Krügel needs to improve his triangulation.

Notice also that Mark Arnold’s fate could potentially depend on Krügel’s utterances: if Krügel says, on no sound basis, that Arnold was lying and Krügel is taken seriously, Arnold could face undeserved vilification and bad treatment, and that’s hardly justice (because it’s not based on solid evidence) even if Arnold had a hand in Kerry’s disappearance.  Worse yet, what if Krügel subsequently turns out to have been wrong?  How will he make up for the anguish he has caused Arnold and Kerry’s family and friends?

'Luthon64

*Sigh* "international manhunt expert"??? ::)
Really Barbara Cole, an expert implies some skill and success in that field. DK is an expert in deceiving gullible journalists like yourself, something I would not advertise if I were serious about journalism...

Yeah, thus are myths born, midwived by exaggeration.

Next thing you know, we’ll have Tommy Lee Jones or someone playing Danie Krügel in a movie called The Spiral Haircase or maybe Fibreman - The Movie.

'Luthon64

I am the owner of www.vood00.wordpress.com (http://www.vood00.wordpress.com), where I've spent some time and effort in debunking all Krugel's claims. I now have a bit of a challenge for South African skeptics on Facebook: The family of Kerry Winter has been duped into believing that Krugel can help them, and are continuing their efforts to get him and his woo-box into Dubai (at their expense).

I have taken the step (not lightly) to share my views on Krugel on the Facebook Group "Help us find Kerry" at http://www.new.facebook.com/group.php?gid=25303393482 (http://www.new.facebook.com/group.php?gid=25303393482), because even though I feel sorry for them and fully understand their grief and need for closure, I also think that they have the opportunity to unmask Krugel for the fraud he surely is. I don't want to be an insensitive cynic who expects an already grief-stricken family to play to my whims of giving Krugel a fake hair sample or two to test his claims while they just want to find thir loved one, but I have now suggested exactly that, in the hope that some good can come of this tragedy. Problem is that people who have just lost a loved one have a very different idea of what "good" means, and unmasking a fraud to save future families in the same situation from false hope and heartachhe is understandably low on their list. This said, I still feel that they need to know the facts, and if they still choose to continue on the Krugel route, to have at least a little doubt and perhaps a willingness to test him by providing a fake sample or two.

So, what I am trying to get to is to ask any of you who feel that you are willing to put your name to this, to comment on the wall of the Facebook group, and reinforce my arguments against and suggestions for unmansking Krugel. Winters' direct family members manage, read and respond to posts made there, and I've already had at least one response that lists daniekrugelfacts.com as their source of confidence in his claims. I don't think the family will appreciate it now, but if it works, it will be a great day for logic, reason, science and future victims.

Oi, this is a tough one. As bad as I want DK to be exposed for the fraud that he is, I don't think this is the way to do it. I would imagine that taking part in an experiment or test would be furthest from their mind atm. Unless they approach someone, I think it should be left there. The most we can do is try to make sure that they are aware that daniekrugelfacts is his own propaganda site and that he and his fake DNA detector is not in the least as successful in finding people as he tries to make us believe.

As you said, they want to hear positive things and to believe that DK can find Kerry. A few people telling them otherwise is not what they want to hear right now. I believe pushing it too much could hurt our position more than it can help it. Maybe the best thing to do is to put them in contact with some of the previous families that were conned by DK. Maybe their experiences will be more persuasive.

That said, I am glad you brought it up. They might not really care about what some skeptics think, but maybe they do care about any future families that might get hurt and taken advantage of by DK.

I haven't read all the posts in the FB group, but I will go through it later...

I have to agree - much as I want to help expose the schmuck (and am all for what you have done on your blog) this is the wrong way to go about it. They have much bigger issues to worry about, and they are right when they say they have nothing to lose (tho you could argue they may get false hope, but that's their decision). He will likely add this to his list of failures without your help, and we'll have another fail to add to the list.

I don't quite agree that they have nothing to lose. Apart from the emotional anguish it can cause, they will spend time and resources on chasing after DK, instead of using it on something useful.

BTW, welcome to the new members,  SSiE and ewan :)

What follows may be redundant for having already occurred – the Facebook link is blocked to me.

I must echo and reinforce the generally evident sentiment here that Danie Krügel needs to be exposed for the fraud, variously delusional fool, he no doubt is.  Rather than effectively issuing an overt challenge in the present circumstance, I think it might be better to point up Krügel’s failures one at a time and repeatedly.  The general feeling will, I expect, be against a rational approach because woo-woos proverbially think with their hearts rather than their heads, and there’s a really good chance that the message of rationality will be ignored and dismissed as “destroying hope.”  Such emotion is both inimical and impervious to reason.

'Luthon64

Thanks for the responses, and yes, after sleeping on it I do feel that I crossed a line in directly proposing a test for Krugel. I have, however planted that seed and cannot 'unplant' it, but will not push the issue any further.

What I still feel strongly about is that they should be made aware of the facts, and I have contacted one person who was willing to talk about DK in the past and asked if they would be willing to speak to Winter's family. I'm not going to push from my side, as this will no doubt be perceived very negatively if I continue.

OK, all that being said, does anybody here have any idea on how to expose Krugel, without interfering in some highly emotional case? These are the only ones he ever gets involved in, no doubt for exactly the reasons we have discussed in the previous 5 posts: When dealing with highly emotional people grasping at straws, there's little chance of them questioning you, and the skeptics will stay away out of respect.A nice little catch-22 for people like us who want to see him exposed. This is part of why I took the step of proposing the test to them, as I really cannot see any other way.

I agree unreservedly.  Perhaps the best way would be to collate a short one or two page overview report covering three main issues: (1) the sheer implausibility of the physics of Krügel’s claims; (2) his claimed successes and why they probably are false or exaggerated or have a more prosaic explanation, and (3) his manifest failures.  To add to its weight, the report should carry the signature of one or other university’s physics authority, before handing it to Winter’s family for their consideration.



In an earlier post, I made reference to the relative ease, as compared to the rest of the world, with which patents can be filed in SA (http://forum.skeptic.za.org/general-skepticism/the-locator-locates!-(danie-krugel)/msg1485/#msg1485), and that Krügel had been reported as being in the process of doing so for his KTT device.  The gist of it is that in SA patent law, questions of originality, effectiveness and uniqueness are left open for settlement by litigation.  This curiosity presents an opening for someone, possibly a group, with the appropriate wherewithal to file a very similar patent and then, once granted, either wait to be sued by Krügel or to sue him first for patent infringement.  The ensuing court case will show who’s lying because then Krügel will have no choice but to demonstrate that his machine does as he claims.  We, that is Dr 'Luthon64 and I, would be more than willing to contribute to such an initiative.

'Luthon64

A dedicated blog is a good idea, I will also be willing to help out with hosting if need be. Lets discuss this further in a new thread: http://forum.skeptic.za.org/members-only/danie-krugel-fact-sheet/

Amid the confusion and turmoil of Kerry Winters’ disappearance in Dubai, Danie Krügel has retained his newly-awarded status of “academic.” (http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=15&art_id=vn20080930054947633C999148)  Newly-awarded, that is, through a careless and unverified assumption, possibly a deliberate fabrication, on the part of a reporter, one that has gone unchecked by a subeditor, who collaboratively have ensured that Krügel’s transition from security officer to academic must rank among the very fastest on record.

To the best of my knowledge, this is the second time this untruth has appeared in print.  In turn, that means it has now become an ironclad fact and will be repeated in perpetuity as such because, after all, there are now two citable references for it.

'Luthon64

After reading the link provided by 'Luthon64, I decided to check for an email address to send a letter correcting the report and found this at the bottom of the page:-



Perhaps we should send letters to the Press Ombudsman about the inaccuracies in the article seeing that emailing the newspaper itself doesn't seem to produce any results.

Just a thought....

The SA press ombudsman’s e-mail address is <ombudsman@presscouncil.org.za>.  We have already despatched a complaint with links to both IOL articles in which the error appears.

'Luthon64

Danie Krügel’s standing as an “academic” was amended today.  The two stories apparently originated with The Mercury and were snapped up by other news agencies and newspapers.  The following rider was appended to each article:See here (http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?click_id=13&art_id=vn20080925054309628C525238) and here (http://www.iol.co.za/index.php?set_id=1&click_id=15&art_id=vn20080930054947633C999148).

Let us hope that this puts paid to any further nonsense of this kind.

'Luthon64

Thanks to SSiE, the site Stop Danie Krügel (http://www.stopdaniekrugel.com/) is now live.

I am wondering if Danie Krügel's involvement in the Madeline McCann case will be mentioned in this upcoming documentary (http://www.news24.com/News24/World/News/0,,2-10-1462_2414062,00.html).  It is based on the book published by ex-detective Goncalo Amaral who has long accused Maddie's parents of involvement in the disappearance of their daughter.  It may be that Krügel's involvement will be framed within the conspiracy that the McCann's were pretending to co-operate with the investigation but knew that Danie Krügel would not be able to shed any light on the case.

I'd be interested to see if this happens.

James

Got this from a Google alert: http://peace4missing.ning.com/profiles/blog/show?id=2153128%3ABlogPost%3A13794

Everytime I read anything on this, it becomes more clear that he is up to shenanigans, and will not have a proper test on his machine.

Meanwhile, Carte Blanche remains unrepentant and continues to avoid acknowledging valid criticism over the ill-conceived Danie Krügel/Gert van Rooyen embarrassment.



'Luthon64

Finally, a media acknowledgement that Danie Krügel failed to locate (http://www.theherald.co.za/herald/news/n20_15012009.htm) Ray Flanagan.

The tone of the final paragraph seems to herald a change in the media’s take on Krügel and his marvellous person-locating machine, but maybe it’s just that this particular journalist has done her homework more diligently.  Or maybe she’s less tolerant of woo-woo.  We’ll see.

'Luthon64

Hi, I've discovered an interesting little industry of woo that relates directly to Krugel's claims, published at http://vood00.wordpress.com/2009/01/20/dowsing-stick-in-a-box/ (http://vood00.wordpress.com/2009/01/20/dowsing-stick-in-a-box/), if anyone is still interested in him ;-)

Did anyone catch Carte Blanche yesterday? I saw the show advertised with an insert of Krügel, but could not watch it. Looked like much of the same uncritical reporting that we are used to from CB. Although I hope I'm wrong...

I did - transcript can be found at http://www.mnet.co.za/Mnet/Shows/carteblanche/Story.asp?Id=3665 (http://www.mnet.co.za/Mnet/Shows/carteblanche/Story.asp?Id=3665). Terrible as feared.

Professor Heleen Coetzee (former head of Histology at the University of Pretoria's medical Faculty, co-author and so called scientist) backs up Danie's machine - her "scientific consciousness interface operation system" (SCIO) mentioned in the article deserves some further investigation methinks... mentioned here: http://thesecondsight.blogspot.com/2007/04/eors-mailbag.html (http://thesecondsight.blogspot.com/2007/04/eors-mailbag.html) and here: http://thesecondsight.blogspot.com/2006/10/quantum-energy-money-machine.html (http://thesecondsight.blogspot.com/2006/10/quantum-energy-money-machine.html).

Not to derail the thread, but the fact that Prof. Coetzee supports the SCIO device (also discussed here (http://forum.skeptic.za.org/junk-science-and-alternative-medicine/bodytalk-and-quantum-quackery)) as a valid modality says a lot.  If she believes that it has any value above a placebo or a stress-alleviating device then she needs to reconsider very carefully.  There’s a reason that in the US the device can only be traded as a stress-reducer, not as a diagnostic or a curative one.

Be that as it may, if she supports SCIO and Danie Krügel, then she has an obvious attraction to woo-woo claims, and that’s worrying coming from a high-level academic in a scientific field.  Her authority, while not to be taken lightly, is certainly not decisive.  Krügel still owes the world evidence despite Carte Blanche’s and Prof. Coetzee’s thumbs-up.

'Luthon64

At least they included this bit from Dr David Klatzow:

But then they have Prof Heleen Coetzee showing what she knows about science:
No Heleen, he has not done anything to show that the machine is anything but an empty box with fancy lights. All of his finds could just as easily been done with good detective work. There is nothing to suggest that the locating device played any part in finding the victims at all. You either have a very low standard of what constitutes as research or you don't have a clue what real scientific research is.

So how about someone challenge him to the Million Dollar Challenge?

stopdaniekrugel.com (http://www.stopdaniekrugel.com/2008/09/hairs-breadth-from-1-million-why-does.html)

Yeah, maybe I should actually read the resources before spouting my mouth off. Sorry :(

Danie Krugel – Finding Missing Persons: Secret Emerging Technology Based on Quantum Physics
*Sigh* If quantum entanglement could be used in this manner, it would make big headlines. Sadly this just shows how badly people understand this very real and useful phenomenon. What are you waiting for Danie? We are ready to be wowed. Or could it be that you have nothing but good old fashioned police work to patent. That and a bit of smoke and mirrors and publicity at the right time...

Thank you, thank you for finding this and raising it here!  It is a distillation of all that is essentially wrong with popular scientific journalism.  Several experts say, in a gentle and restrained voice, “The man is very probably deluded, and what he says does not sound feasible.”  The writer cites just one such expert, and neglects to think (never mind mention) that there are hundreds, even thousands of experts who would say mostly the same thing.  The reporter (and subeditor and possibly the editor, too) truly thinks that this is “balanced reporting,” i.e. offsetting the claimant’s story with the critique of a single expert.  Then, to cap it off, the reporter completely deserts reality and determinedly ventures into woo-woo land with a strategically placed and tantalising, “How wonderful if it was true!” spin right at the end.  So much for sticking to the facts.  The casual reader is thus left with the impression that there’s more than a little something to Krügel’s claims.

This is the dark side of journalistic independence:  ignorance is allowed, even encouraged to shine.

'Luthon64

What has happened to the Stop Danie Krügel (http://www.stopdaniekrugel.com) website?

Aliens?  Gremlins?  Or was it washed away by a flood of Veet maybe?

'Luthon64

I'm not too sure what is going on, Mefiante, I checked the website just over a week ago and it was up. What has been puzzling me, though, is that SSiE's (http://vood00.wordpress.com/) blog has been unreachable for over a month now - it says the blog is protected, which is a pity because I really enjoy reading his posts.
Are you still in contact with him? If so, perhaps he can tell us what's going on?

mdg

Sorry gang... it's my fault.

SSiE is in the process of relocating to greener pastures, and he's handed over the Stop Danie Krugel site to me. Unfortunately the domain expired last week while I was in the midst of preparations for the weekend's Star Trek convention, and I missed the notification. (so much for Starfleet efficiency)

I'm working on getting it up and running again. Hopefully without much more interruption.

That's happened to me before, you're lucky no-one stole it.