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Voting Day

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Hermes
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« Reply #15 on: May 06, 2014, 13:00:47 PM »

I have voted many times in my life but always based on principle: not on promises, opposition % etc....in other words I have a look at the values espoused by the leaders (like Helen Suzman with the Progs many decades ago) and vote according to my conscience (albeit subjective). Huh?
If only all voters followed your sound approach, we would automatically have good politicians.
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Brian
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« Reply #16 on: May 06, 2014, 15:56:56 PM »

yeh...Hermes and therein lies the rub...it is said that a country deserves the government it gets (do we?) and also that there is no such thing as a "good government"... WTF!!
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The Vulcan
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« Reply #17 on: May 06, 2014, 17:01:58 PM »

Quote from: EWN link=http://ewn.co.za/2014/05/06/Eastern-Cape-Preelection-violence-deepens
EASTERN CAPE – Two hotspots have been identified by Eastern Cape police ahead of the elections.

 Police in the province said additional members will be deployed to Molteno and Sterkspruit.

 Sterkspruit has been plagued by pre-election tension.

 The police's Sibongile Soci said officers will be out in their numbers.

“All hot spot areas in our province will be closely monitored and additional forces have been placed on standby in those areas to ensure that we have enough forces to deal with any contingencies or crisis that may require our intervention.”

Pre-election violence has already flared up in the Sterkspruit.

 Early on Monday morning, a school hall, which was to be used as a voting station, was torched.


So they're tired of bad service delivery and maladministration and they want to change this by not voting?

Now the burning of tyres and destroying property I understand, because yes, violence is always the answer when you don't like something, right? WTF!!

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The Vulcan
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« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2014, 10:43:31 AM »

Just had a heated argument on not forcing someone to vote, IMO you just can't force another adult to vote or not, it's a choice not an obligation.

Just what do you call the fallacy that if you don't vote, it automatically counts for the majority?

It was said that if you don't vote, you automatically vote ANC, I called bullshit on this and then he explained that if 10 people vote And 50% vote ANC and the other DA, then if one of the DA don't vote, you give your vote to the ANC, I only conceded that in such a case, yes the ANC would win in that specific "if" scenario.

However I countered that what if that person (now we weren't talking about that if situation anymore, moved on since that, this crazy idea still persisted) didn't vote, and he would have voted ANC, he still votes ANC, and then I was scolded for having a thick head, because of course now that counts for the DA! HA! I persisted that no, because it doesn't count and the majority still wins, so by his definition, he still voted ANC even if he didn't vote, then I was told I don't understand politics and that I have a thick skull.

I am voting btw, but I disagreed with the person trying to force someone to go to the voting station.

And I disagree that by not voting, you automatically vote for the ANC, surely there must be a fallacy named for this, fallacy of composition perhaps?

Edit: I kept saying  that it just doesn't count and that that person should then just not complain about politics then, see I didn't add this, but this was still in huge disagreement, the other guy kept saying it counts ANC... Just pre-empting this obvious response
« Last Edit: May 07, 2014, 10:57:36 AM by The Vulcan » Logged
Rigil Kent
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« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2014, 11:06:01 AM »

Yes, an un-casted vote obviously can't count either way.
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The Vulcan
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« Reply #20 on: May 07, 2014, 11:18:10 AM »

Yes, an un-casted vote obviously can't count either way.

Yes, but "Everyone knows that if you don't vote, it automatically counts for the ANC"

Everyone knows this, seriously? Is this like everyone knowing that the earth is flat, or that the sun orbits around the earth?
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brianvds
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« Reply #21 on: May 07, 2014, 11:50:34 AM »

Yes, an un-casted vote obviously can't count either way.

Yes, but "Everyone knows that if you don't vote, it automatically counts for the ANC"

Everyone knows this, seriously? Is this like everyone knowing that the earth is flat, or that the sun orbits around the earth?

It's just scare tactics. See my previous post about voting for lizards. By the time any opposition party finally has enough support to defeat the ANC, it will in itself probably have become every bit as bloated and corrupt.

For people inclined to anarchism, there is one reason not to vote: low voter turnout reduces the credibility of whatever government takes power.

And then, for any individual, another reason not to vote is simply that it will make no difference to your own life whether you vote or not. Your single vote is lost among millions of others, and will simply not make any difference to the outcome. Of course, as voter turnout gets lower and lower, your individual vote gets more powerful. If literally only ten people vote, the individual vote begins to really count for something. But I don't think voter turnout will ever be below millions.

A far more effective way to influence the outcome of the election is to convince other people to vote for your favourite party. If you can manage to convince 200 000 people to vote for, say, the EFF, thanks to a popular blog or by making speeches or whatever, it is as if you wield 200 000 votes, and you hardly need to bother to cast your own.

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Mefiante
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« Reply #22 on: May 07, 2014, 11:57:54 AM »

The problem here is that the argument exploits our intuitions and is not based on any rational appraisal of the numbers that are involved.  For the sake of simplicity, let’s suppose an election results in 60% of the votes going to Party A, 25% to Party B and 15% to Party C.  If the poll consisted of just 20 voters, this means 12 voted for A, 5 for B and 3 for C.

If an A voter had failed to vote, the A/B/C counts would have been 11/5/3, or 57.9%/26.3%/15.8% representation.  Similarly, if a B voter had failed to vote, the counts would have been 12/4/3, or 63.15%/21.05%/15.80%, and if a C voter had failed to vote, the counts would have been 12/5/2, or 63.2%/26.3%/10.5%.  It is therefore obvious in this case that withholding a vote from a specific party increases the representation of all the other parties in proportion to their respective current representations, and the party from which the vote is withheld is the most affected.

However, when we repeat the same exercise with a poll of 2,000,000 instead of just 20, the effect of a single withheld vote is negligible (0.00002% for Party A).  Thus, the fallacy is in ignoring the size of the poll, and, more generally, relying on gut-feel rather than careful consideration of the effect of large numbers.

'Luthon64
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The Vulcan
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« Reply #23 on: May 07, 2014, 15:47:11 PM »

Pointing out the fact that one person's vote has on the whole was one of the many things I pointed out, I didn't demonstrate it by using math examples, but the point was made, I don't think it was a scare tactic, this seemed like a genuine belief, and no matter what I said, he just kept at this line of thinking.

Mefiante, that last part is what I was trying to get at, do you know what kind of fallacy this is? I'm done arguing, but would like to add this to my piggy bank of fallacies I now know about
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brianvds
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« Reply #24 on: May 07, 2014, 18:09:05 PM »

Well, after careful consideration I decided to withhold my vote this election. I do not want any of the major parties in control anyway, and if you vote for a party that ends up getting so few votes that it doesn't make it to parliament, you have in effect voted for the ANC or DA. We really need ballots with the option "none of the above". That way, there can be a meaningful protest vote.

I did mark my left thumb with black ink though, because I can't imagine anything more tiresome than having to explain myself to friends and colleagues for the next three months.

Whether I will ever bother again remains to be seen - the more I think about it, the less I can see the point.
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« Reply #25 on: May 08, 2014, 07:08:18 AM »

We really need ballots with the option "none of the above".

Just spoil your ballot paper. That's saying 'none of the above.'
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Mefiante
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« Reply #26 on: May 08, 2014, 08:36:33 AM »

Mefiante, that last part is what I was trying to get at, do you know what kind of fallacy this is?
I think it’s conditionally probable that we’re dealing with a base rate fallacy Wink.

'Luthon64
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Rigil Kent
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« Reply #27 on: May 08, 2014, 10:00:27 AM »

Just spoil your ballot paper.
You mean take it out for  a few drinks, a pricey dinner and a 3-d movie? Not sure the voting officials will approve, but I'll check ...
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cr1t
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« Reply #28 on: May 08, 2014, 10:25:17 AM »

I think the point people try and make is that, yes 1 vote does not make a difference, but a million votes can.
If you assume that, that million would go to opposition party's.

In any case I don't understand voter apathy. I understand there might not be the perfect party out there, but the next best thing
in a imperfect system is still better than nothing.
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Mefiante
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« Reply #29 on: May 08, 2014, 12:21:51 PM »

I think the point people try and make is that, yes 1 vote does not make a difference, but a million votes can.
Yes, intuitively it appears to be true in principle that a million potential votes not cast in a poll of millions will benefit the parties that those withheld votes would not have gone to normally, and that this benefit is proportionate with each party’s representation in the poll.

This should be clear enough from the example I gave earlier.

However, there are now two other fallacies in the reasoning cited above.  The first is the hidden assumption that all of those withheld votes would have gone to the same party, whereas overall it would likely be more accurate to assume that those withheld votes are distributed more or less the same as the actual votes, in which case the withheld votes will make little difference to the outcome.  The second fallacy is the implicit hasty generalisation of seeing one person withhold their vote, and extrapolating therefrom that millions will do likewise.

'Luthon64
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